Mao news - as we head into the 2009-10 season

I must say there's NO merit to do the 3F-3Lo in the FS (other than fulfilling her self esteem).

Their basic plan should include two 3Axels and two 3Flips. If a 3Loop is used in the combo, it can't be repeated as a solo jump. Mao's solo 3Loop is very secure and usually high GOE is guaranteed. Doing the faulty 3F-3Lo is like throwing money in the sewage.

Even if the 3F-3Lo was not downgraded, the judges are unlikely to give positive GOE any more. They don't know the caller's decision and they are already prejudiced to see that Mao's 3F-3Lo is ALWAYS underrotated.

3F-3Lo...

If Mao can land this cleanly with her 3A's I think she will be unstoppable. But as everyone is saying, it seems really difficult to land without an UR being called TT__TT It's a tricky move to throw in Olympic season, but if Mao's aim is to be "the greatest skater the world has ever seen," I don't know if she can afford to play it safe unfortunately.

I also agree with zooma, I think many of these challenging jumps may be to help boost Mao's self-esteem. There's some healing that needs to be done from this past season.

This jump layout is not pleasing and satisfying at all
2 triple axels are very difficult to land and combined with a difficult 3-3 combination it's highly unlikely to get ratified.
I mean Mao tried her two axels so often last season and got one of them downgraded far too often. I just think it would be way more smart to try one axel in combination with 2toe. I think the jugdes are more willing to ratify one axel in one program, even if the landing's not that smooth and all....
Two axels are another story, they will be examined very carefully and strict.

I'm wondering why Mao's not sticking to her former layouts from 06/07 and 07/08 season when they clearly worked better.
I thought this season was just a tryout and nothing particular for the Olympic Games...
I think one fine 3axel and a well landed 3-3(3f-3toe would be a great choice, why not try that?) combined with a good set of single triples is still more than enough.
She did well with that at Worlds 07 and NHK trophy 06. And at the GPF 07 and 4CC 08 she even got over 72 points for technical merit..
I know Mao loves the challenge and is someone who seeks perfection, but for now she really should play it more safe and comfortable.
Her long program has very heavy and dark music, I think the music itself is a huge challenge. Combined with such a heavy jump layout she will have a tough time succeeding and beating Yu-Na or Joannie... Miki also regained strength and confidence. I guess and also hope Yukari will make it to Worlds and Olys. She'll be hard to beat as well since she's a consistent skater...

So far I'm not really convinced with TATs and Maos plans for the next season. By now I'm halfway pleased with the musical choice, but this layout is slightly disturbing...

I am so confused...
Didn't TAT mentioned last season that it was Mao's 'challenging' year and that she would go safe this year ?
This year looks like it will be more challenging...

Come on TAT, I know Mao's very athletic and special but there are limits..

Thank you Summervie!
Yes, I was panicking...

PANIC.PANIC.PANIC. If she hits, she will win. There is no doubt if she got everything ratified, and with good GOE, she will win. Let's just see if Mao is capable of doing this layout in TEB, if she consistently shows that she can get all of the elements ratified, I think we might be seeing 2 3-3 and 2 3a, 3lz, 3s, and 2a at the olympics

The main problem is that Mao and Tat like all the world saw the scores of yuna at worlds and 4cc and almost all the competitions , yes, Mao can do 3f-3t, but she will never obtein(I don´t know why? ) the same or more points than yuna, same in 2a, 3lutz, and 2a-3t. then this situation will be "ok, I do it fine, now only hope that yuna fall", I guess that Mao want gold medal or nothing .



sorry my english

ddmm wrote:

Thank you Summervie!
Yes, I was panicking...

Pooping wrote:

PANIC.PANIC.PANIC.

Seems like a lot of people expect from Mao to "just believe" in herself and to skate at the Olympics with freedom and joy - then everything will be all right. (While I find it difficult to imagine where Mao (or Yu-na) could get any joy or freedom at the Olympics. For joy there're shows and some pressure-free competitions, while Olympics are solely about survival.) In this case why not to try to believe in what TAT and Mao are doing? We still haven't seen those programs, still don't know a lot of things...
It's easy to be generous when you're wealthy. Easy to be kind and cheerful when evertything is fine with you. Easy to believe when there's some undoubtful fact in front of your eyes, not so easy - when one's in the mist of uncertainty and any next step can be a mistake. (That's actually what's called "believing".)
So maybe let's make a flashmob? A week of *believing* in Mao and TAT? Wouldn't it be nice? )

P.s.
And even if there will be mistakes, those will be their own mistakes. If you don't like music choices of TAT, consider this as a disadvantage of working with her. One can't be perfect. You think the jumps layout isn't that good? But they still have chosen it, so apparently there were enough reasons for them to do so, or they wouldn't have.
It's not like TAT doesn't care, she does everything she's capable of and what she thinks will be the best for Mao. And the most important, I think she believes that they together really can do it! Everything else, as she herself says, for God to decide.

chapis wrote:

The main problem is that Mao and Tat like all the world saw the scores of yuna at worlds and 4cc and almost all the competitions , yes, Mao can do 3f-3t, but she will never obtein(I don´t know why? ) the same or more points than yuna, same in 2a, 3lutz, and 2a-3t.

And this is not true! When Mao's "ON" she actually gets very good GoEs. She can score better than other ladies in nearly all the elements (sans layback, she usually doesn't fulfill features for lvl4 and gets less points.

I remember that somebody at FSU made ranking of the highest scoring elements at GPF 2007 and Worlds 2008 (highest ranking combo, solo jump, spins, spirals, steps, etc.). And guess who scored the highest? Yep, Mao.

But there is one condition. To score high in elements, she must skate cleanly and with confidence. This is what the judges are looking for. The programs that appeal to the audience would help as well. (Though, actually, Mao got good PCS scores even with last season's programs that were claimed by some to not be audience pleasing - as long as she skated more or less clean and with confidence. The biggest hits on PCS happened when she looked defeated even before the competition started, like at 4CC and Worlds).

So, IMHO, it's crucial to find a jump layout that would score high, and yet allow Mao to skate with confidence.

Let's do that!

First, let us look at YuNa's layout, as she will probably be Mao's toughest competitor (though I have a feeling that Miki, as long as she stays healthy, may open a can of surprise).

YuNa's potential layout:

3F-3T	9.50
3L	5.00
3Lz-2T-2L	8.80
2A-3T x	8.25
3Lz x	6.60
3S x	4.50
2A x	3.85

Total base value [jumps]: 46.5

I included 3L, as I think YuNa and Orser will probably at least try to put it in time for Olympics. I also heard that they will try a different combo (I think probably 3Lz-3T) but this will not change the base value. The only way the base value of this layout could be increased is by adding a [2A/3Lz/3F]-2L-2L, a 3A or a combo ending in 3L, which is probably not going to happen.

Now let's look at Mao's potential planned jump layout:

3A-2T	9.50
3A	8.20
3F-2L-2L	8.50
3F-3L x	11.55
3Lz x	6.60
3S x	4.95
2A x	3.85

Total base value [jumps]: 53.15

So, the base value advantage is high. But there is a problem.

YuNa's jump layout is tried and safe. She will most probably gain some serious GoEs (The Olympics will be in Canada. The scores might to get crazy...). +2 here and there, + 1.8 elsewhere, who knows, maybe +3 will make an appearance. With such advantage YuNa can allow herself a fall or pop and her scores will not be affected too much.

Now, let's look closer at Mao's jump layout.

Risky elements: two 3As, 3F-3L, 3Lz, 3S. That's five risky jump passes. If only one element got downgraded or otherwise messed up, there wouldn't be too much damage. But, if Mao uses up her stamina on the first 3A, minimally URs the second one, is so concentrated on the upcoming 3Lz that she pops or falls on 3F-3L, then is shaken and messes up 3Lz and has a wobbly landing on 3S... The base value and GoEs rapidly run away towards the horizon.

Remember, Shizuka won with a huge score of 125.32 with no 3-3, doubled loop and just 5 triples. But she skated a graceful, beautiful program with no falls or stumbles, and the judges awarded that.

If I were Mao, I'd go for:

3A	8.20
3Lz	6.00
2A-3T	7.50
3F-2L x	7.70
3L-2L-2L x	8.80
3F x	6.05
3L x	5.50

Total base value [jumps]: 49.75

Difficulty analysis:
- A solo 3A should be much easier to rotate than a combo (no need to worry too much about tacking on a 2T on the end of it). The jump could be entered with a bit more speed and power, and have more beautiful landing. +GoE
/some nice, non-tiring transitions go here/
- 3Lz on fresh legs should be much easier than one out of steps or in the 2nd half. When done cleanly, it is a beauty: http://yfrog.com/0r3lzworlds01g . Result: +GoE
/again, in the slower part of the music some nice transitions to rest/
- 2A-3T . It would need to be re-mastered after 2 seasons of not attempting it, but considering how quickly Mao got her 2A-3T and 3F-3T, how much flow she has out of her 2A now (in the "Claire de Lune" SP, she always had enough speed out of 2A to start a beautiful one-footed footwork without the need to put the second blade down to gain speed) and how much her 3T improved I think that she could master this combo pretty quickly.

And after those elements it would be a walk in the park, repeating two of Mao's very favourite jumps: 3F and 3L, for which she always gets high GoEs.
According to the latest fluff, Mao is also working on making her jump landings more creative and gorgeous... This challenge would be certainly easier if she didn't have to worry about messing up the jumps themselves.

There would be no 3A combo to downgrade, no risky combo ending in 3L, no 3S. And this "easy" jump layout would still have higher base value that YuNa's maxed out one.

Result: more confidence, more speed, rolling in GoEs.

(Plus, it would have an advantage of the possibility to upgrade it one day - to add 3F-3T and 3S, or challenge 3A-3T.)


This does not mean that I don't trust in Mao and TAT... I think it's clear to anyone who watches them together that TAT cares about Mao and wants her to do her best.

I'm just a bit worried that the strategy chosen might backlash on two fronts, on one hand increasing the risk of messing up the jumps during a competition, on the second, creating an illusion that Mao is a technical skater who concentrates only on jumps.

I'm so tired of people saying that Mao concentrates on jumps only! It would seem that anyone who has a pair of more-or-less functional eyes will notice that Mao, perhaps more than anyone, concentrates on every area of her skating: edging, footwork, spins, spirals, expression... But, because her programs are so stamina-consuming and risky she's often forced to concentrate on skating cleanly. In result, her speed, expression, confidence and attention to details decrease during the actual performance. It doesn't matter to the judges or most of the audience that other skaters would fall 15 times just trying to go through Mao's program even with easier jumps. What they see is a skater skating with less attack and confidence, and assume Mao is simply a weaker skater.

I think it would actually help Mao if TAT took a leaf out of Orser's book and announced something like that:
"Last season was a challenge. We tried something other skaters wouldn't dare to try in a time span of many seasons. We attempted and succeeded to land two 3A and to bring into programs three jumps that used to cause Mao troubles. We worked on all the elements.
It was a difficult season, but we learned a lot. We have found a jump layout that only Mao can do with no worries and with confidence. Now she can concentrate on performance. She can bring ballet on ice and skate programs that will become a part of glorious history of figure skating."

...Or something. Politicking is important!

But I don't think TAT has personality like that... Instead of announcing to the world that her skater is the best, she will quietly work on trying to make him/her the best. Sometimes it backlashes... On FSU TAT has a reputation of often giving her skaters too difficult programs to handle.

I'm not TOO much worried yet, though. I wouldn't even be sure that Mao will really go for two 3A and 3F-3L. I'd say it's very possible that she'll use a safer jump layout at Olympics, just like Shizuka chose to not attempt 3-3-3 or 3-3, Miki skipped the 3-3 in favour of 2A-3T at last Worlds, Yags skipped the 2nd 3A in favour of repeating 3Lz and YuNa keeps on replacing 3L with 2A.

I really hope that TAT and Mao will find a jump layout that works for Mao the best.

Okami wrote:

The whole post.

summervie wrote:

In this case why not to try to believe in what TAT and Mao are doing? We still haven't seen those programs, still don't know a lot of things...

Okami wrote:

But I don't think TAT has personality like that... Instead of announcing to the world that her skater is the best, she will quietly work on trying to make him/her the best. Sometimes it backlashes... On FSU TAT has a reputation of often giving her skaters too difficult programs to handle.

I'm not TOO much worried yet, though. I wouldn't even be sure that Mao will really go for two 3A and 3F-3L. I'd say it's very possible that she'll use a safer jump layout at Olympics, just like Shizuka chose to not attempt 3-3-3 or 3-3, Miki skipped the 3-3 in favour of 2A-3T at last Worlds, Yags skipped the 2nd 3A in favour of repeating 3Lz and YuNa keeps on replacing 3L with 2A.

I really hope that TAT and Mao will find a jump layout that works for Mao the best.

Thanks Okami and summervie! ITA. I guess we'll just have to wait and see ... It's not like TaT doesn't know what she's doing and Mao has the right to tell TaT if this isn't the layout she wants. Of course she can't do something impossible, but if Mao wants to and believes she can do it, then why not give it a try? They can always change it later if it doesn't work.

GO TEAM MAO!

Mao has attemped new jumps every year (i.e. 3F+3Lo in 2005, 2A+3T in 2006, 3F+3T in 2007, 3A+2T and 3S in 2008). What TAT means by saying "no adventure in this season" is simply they're not doing new jumps. That is a rather conservative approach but the programs won't get easier. Even in the year of "challenges", Mao has never proved that she can land two 3As and a 3-3 in one program.

And what about the lutz? Avoiding lutz will halve the merit of two 3As and it hurts her image in the judge's eyes. Attempting two 3As on top of difficult 3-3s and lutz is a great challenge but two 3As with no 3-3 and lutz could be considered as a coverup of weakness and imperfection. The 3Lz is a MUST jump for top ladies as same as the 3A for top men. She definitely needs to place proper lutz to recover the judges' confidence.

TAT also says "can't rest a second in the FS". A dark and heavy music doesn't help much. Mao needs extraordinary skills, stamina and mental toughness to "overcome the challenge". Otherwise a mistake will make it a funeral music. No mistake is allowed in Vancouver (at least in the audience's eyes). They're going for gold or nothing.

summervie wrote:

It's not like TAT doesn't care, she does everything she's capable of and what she thinks will be the best for Mao. And the most important, I think she believes that they together really can do it! Everything else, as she herself says, for God to decide.

I agree with you.

Mao seems to be relaxing very much now.
There might have been some changes in her consciousness after worlds. I think it's very good.

Has there been any new news about Yuna? I want to know her jumping layout and the things she's been trying to work on.

It is reported that Yuna will try new jump layouts this year. I guess if she could stabilize her 3Lutz3Toe in practice, she will use this to replace 3F3T to avoid the edge call.

tianrushui wrote:

It is reported that Yuna will try new jump layouts this year. I guess if she could stabilize her 3Lutz3Toe in practice, she will use this to replace 3F3T to avoid the edge call.

What if she attempts both 3lz3t and 3f3t o.O.

Yuna's POSSIBLE layout:
3f3t (! edge call) she might want to fix this during the summer
3lo
2a
3lz+3t
3lz+2t+2l
3s
2a

improvement from 3 2a's last year.

3f+3t= 9.5
3lz+3t=10.5
3lo=5.0
3lz+2t+2l=8.80 (x = 9.68)
3s=4.5 (x=4.95)
2a=3.5 (x=3.85)
2a=3.5 (x=3.85)

total value: 47.33

MAO
Now......
3A+2T 9.50
3A 8.20
3F+3L 10.40
3LZx 6.60
2Ax (Can she replace this with a 3T? Or is a 2A a requirement for the FS? -_-) 3.85
3Sx 4.95
3F+2L+2Lx 10.2

53.7

She might do this at the olympics, if the season goes well and she dominates



3a+2t+3l= 11.0
3a = 8.20
3f+3l = 10.40
3zx =6.60
3f+3tx = 10.45
3sx= 4.95
2ax =3.85
can she do another triple toe?

55.45 with a triple toe in replacement of the 2a it'll be 56 points base without spins !

With everything
3a+2t+3l= 11.0
3a = 8.20
3f+3l = 10.40
3zx =6.60
3f+3tx = 10.45
3sx= 4.95
2ax =3.85
55.45
SPINS, SPIRALS, STEPS
(I'm pretty sure Mao can achieve level 4 in spins and spirals, steps will probably be a lvl 3)
FSSp4 3.00
SpSq4 3.40
FCoSp4 3.00
SlSt3 3.30
CCoSp4 3.50

OMG 71.65 BASE With Goe she can well score over 80 in TES!!!!!


O_O. This is the ultimate layout

Quote :

She might do this at the olympics, if the season goes well and she dominates



3a+2t+3l= 11.0
3a = 8.20
3f+3l = 10.40
3zx =6.60
3f+3tx = 10.45
3sx= 4.95
2ax =3.85

It would be great if she could achieve that, but wouldn't Mao become to tired? Anyways, I wish her all the best for next season!

Midori Ito could land 3A when she was 14 but she has never put it for real competitions until five years later. It's more accurate to say that she has lost 3A during puberty and recovered at 19. Mao is approaching the same age. I'm rather optimistic about her jumps in this season. Mao's 3A will be more consistent.

Many of us are concerned about the 3F+3Lo. Judging from their apparent confidence in this combo, there might be some improvements. They're very secretive about jump trainings. What we can do is just wait and see.

I don't think Kim has enough stamina to have two 33 in her LP. Actually, she never has a clean LP.
I am confident about Mao's 3F3L. At least, in the past two seasons, in the most important events(world championship), Mao's 33 didn't give her any trouble.

Hi everyone!

I have been a lurker here from quite some time. Batsuchan posts on FSU occasionally about Mao, and I'm always enjoyed her posts so I followed her here. I'm a HUGE fan of Mao, but also of Yuna. In fact, I like them pretty much equally. I hope that's ok and no one thinks I'm a bad Mao fan for liking Yuna too.

Anyways, I was inspired to come out of lurkdom because of some of the posts in this thread. I just want to put my humble opinion out there.

First of all, I'm not convinced that Yuna will do a 3L. I know Orser said they would really try to do that this summer, but they've been working on it for years. Alternatively, I'm very worried about Mao's Lutz. I'm trying not to worry and just waiting to see it in three months, but I hope she can go for it with confidence. It was heartbreaking to me when she missed it at worlds. She finally got her 3-3 rotated and ratified in the SP, but she missed that jump. I could be completely wrong about this, but I think her chances of winning the Olympics diminish greatly without that jump. I'm keeping the faith though, and I pray that TAT will bring her out of her rut!

Secondly, I think some of you have the wrong idea about Mao's jump layout for this year. I know TAT has used the method in the past where she had her skaters try really difficult jumps and elements the first year, and an easier layout the second year in order to win. However, because they are unsure of the level of GOE that would be awarded to Mao in her competitions this season, I think that they feel they HAVE to do this layout to stay competitive with Yuna. As spectacular and breathtaking as Mao's 3x are, the reason Yuna holds so many records and was won as often as she does is because of that 3-3, and the GOE she receives on all of her jumps. No other woman in the world, including Mao, can compare to the level of consistancy Yuna has on her 3-3 combination, just as NO ONE can compare to Mao with the 3x. And only Mao is in Yuna's league when it comes to GOE on jumps (with maybe Miki too!). I think Mao getting that amazing score at WTT convinced her not to go easy this year, and to try for two, possibly 3 3x in the SP and LP. Mao scored a 75 and Yuna a 76, so that puts her right back in contention, especially since Yuna has weaknesses with her LP and Mao could easily overtake her with no underroations and a good lutz. I might be alone this, but I think Mao and TAT have the right strategy for the LP jump layout this year (maybe with the exception of the 3f/3l combo).

Quote :

I don't think Kim has enough stamina to have two 33 in her LP. Actually, she never has a clean LP.
I am confident about Mao's 3F3L. At least, in the past two seasons, in the most important events(world championship), Mao's 33 didn't give her any trouble.

Also, I hope you don't mind me saying, tianrushui, but Mao has skated the same number of clean LPs in the last two seasons as Yuna has: ONLY 1 clean LP. And when I say "clean", I mean no underroations, no falls, etc. This ONLY happened for Mao in international competition at the 2007 GPF (I'm not counting Mao's edge call! ) Faltering in the LP is a serious problem for both Mao AND Yuna, and frankly, if either of them can conquer their problems with the LP, I think that skater will be Olympic champion.

(And btw, Yuna HAS skated a clean LP during the last two seasons: Cup of Russia, 2007. A clean LP with all of her jumps fully rotated, no falls, and a beautiful 3L, one of the last good ones she's done in competition. And what score did she receive? A world record 133 points, which still stands today. Just thought I'd point that out (you're welcome to go check out the protocols if you don't believe me! http://www.isufs.org/results/gprus07/gprus07_Ladies_FS_Scores.pdf )

I hope I haven't offended anyone with my opinions!

I finally decided to post something instead of just reading! Hi everyone! I'm a huge Mao fan

I agree with some opinions and disagree with others. It seems that many people are quite pessimistic about either Mao's music or her jump layout. I'm actually pretty pleased with her music because it doesn't fit into the "pop" classical music that figure skaters always use (I mean the certain classical pieces that become cliche). The prelude in C sharp minor is actually one of the most famous and most well received pieces by Rachmaninoff, so I'm excited to see her program!
I personally think that her jump layout is fine just because she's so familiar with it. It helps to have worked on something for 2 years and I think Mao is happy with it. I know that it seems that by challenging the 3F-3L she's lowering her chances of winning the olympics, but I think Mao's spirit is what made me a fan of hers in the first place. I have done music exams that require me to choose certain pieces, but my teacher and I don't always choose the easiest ones. Sure, I may not be as good at those and I would have to work harder, but to quote a famous musician: "to practice something we're good at is indulging in self-flattery". I don't think by practicing hard jumps, she is trying to fill her self-esteem. If she did simpler jumps, then yes she would be. Mao, to me is simply trying to improve and challenge herself, even during Olympic season. That to me is what makes a good skater and a great person. P.S. does anyone else think that Mao seems so much happier now in her news videos? I fully support her decisions and I believe in Tat and Mao!
About the lutz:

Quote :

I could be completely wrong about this, but I think her chances of winning the Olympics diminish greatly without that jump.

Can anyone explain to me why she has a lowered chance of winning without the Lutz? It seems to have only 1 point higher base value than the flip...and she seems to be including it in her program anyway.

Has Mao ever said that she is skipping 3Lz? I've read the recent interviews carefully and I can't find anything about Mao not doing it...

TAT said that Mao will do two 3A and 3F-3L, but those are only 3 jump passes... After WTT TAT said that Mao will do 3Lz in the LP and I think they will stick to that plan.

Quote :

It seems to have only 1 point higher base value than the flip

Even less so - base value for flip s 5.50 and for Lutz it's 6.00. (After halfway mark it's 6.06 & 6.60, respectively. )

inskate wrote:

Has Mao ever said that she is skipping 3Lz? I've read the recent interviews carefully and I can't find anything about Mao not doing it...

TAT said that Mao will do two 3A and 3F-3L, but those are only 3 jump passes... After WTT TAT said that Mao will do 3Lz in the LP and I think they will stick to that plan.

Quote :

It seems to have only 1 point higher base value than the flip

Even less so - base value for flip s 5.50 and for Lutz it's 6.00. (After halfway mark it's 6.06 & 6.60, respectively. )

I never said Mao won't do the triple lutz. I know she's planning to. What I was trying to say is that if she misses it again in competition, it could hurt her score, just like any other jump she missed would. I singled out the lutz because that was the jump that gave her the most trouble this year. Now, if Yuna misses a jump or two also, maybe that lutz won't be a big deal, which is a why I mentioned Yuna's problems with the triple loop. I just feel if we see her at TEB and she's mastered the lutz, and still does all of her other jumps beautifully, she will win the Olympics if she keeps it up all season. I'm sorry if I was not as clear in my original post!

Quote :

P.S. does anyone else think that Mao seems so much happier now in her news videos? I fully support her decisions and I believe in Tat and Mao!

I agree! This is why even though I do worry about Mao, I have a feeling she will be MUCH stronger this season.

Welcome, Liffey! Hope to see u more often the coming season!

Regarding Mao's new jump layout:

For me, as for many posters here have mentioned, I would have had Mao go less aggressive in terms of jump layouts this coming season and focus more on her level of execution and expres​sion(by expression i am not referring to facial expression).

Yet, I am reminded again and again that Mao is a competitor through and through. She's not competing just to win the gold but also to exceed herself; to expand her own boundaries. When I remembered this, I thought to myself, "I can respect that." If she finds strength and motivation in challenging herself with new jump layouts, new spin and spiral positions every season, so be it, I could find nothing wrong with that. This is a sport; not only a season of competitions. As a fan of FS, I'm only happy to know that I'd be able to see new things from her every season.

Back to her jump layout:

Thanks a lot for summervie's "DON'T PANIC" post. Hohoho.

Thanks a lot to Okami's wonderful and clear analysis of jump layout.

Pooping, that IS the ultimate layout - it's amazing to see the variety of combos that Mao could land in competitions. (though, I must say, in previous competitions, if Mao puts in 2 3-3, she often has at least one of the combo downgraded...)

I am slightly surprised that she is planning to go for 2 3As again in the Olympic season but I can understand the rationale behind it: to not only win the gold, but to win without other people questioning the validity of her triumph.

Technically speaking, Mao is not attempting anything very new this coming season (from the news clips and interviews). Her jump layout this season is more or less the same as the last one, with the exception of adding the lutz.

So, if Mao had last season's competitions to try out this layout and the practices this summer to further stablize and adjust her jumps, I'd say her level of consistency will definitely improve the coming season. Moreover, I don't think there had been any women skaters in the past who had the same consistency with the 3As as Mao. She has consistently landed ONE in all competitions (let's throw the underrotations aside for a minute). If Mao could avoid injury and be healthy, her 3As are going to be fine. Though, l must admit that landing 2 3A, one in combo is slightly daunting to me still. Nonetheless, I have faith in her.

About the lutz:

Many people are focusing on Mao's lutz last season and are worried for her. I can understand how fans can get over-panicky because they simply care a lot for the athlete they're supporting. But in fact, Mao's lutz has improved tremendously this season. She still stalks the entry to the jump to make sure she take off from the right edge but with practice and time, I'm sure she's gonna make it.

Liffey, Okami posted a video not long ago with Mao landing a beautiful broken-ankle lutz in a competition practice last season. Perhaps you can browse around this board and dig it up. Watching it may ease your worry for Mao. Her lutz has come a really long way.

(OKAMI~~I couldn't locate the link on this board; would you mind posting it again?)