Mao's strategy going forward?

Ok, so I was doing some thinking today about Mao's potential jump layouts..

This is what she has been doing:

3A+2T 9.5
3A 8.2
3F+2Lo+2Lo 8.5
3S 4.95
3F+3Lo 11.55
3T 4.4
2A 3.85

TOTAL 50.95

But this is lower than the base value of the jumps she did at the end of the 2007-08 season, which have a total of 51.75.

If the GPF elements sheet represent Mao's ideal jump layout, then that is worth:

3A+2T 9.5
3A 8.2
3F+3T 9.5
3S 4.95
3F+3Lo 11.55
3Lz 6.6
2A 3.85

TOTAL 54.15

But I was thinking today that under this layout, Mao is not doing a three jump combo. So I wonder if you guys think something like this is do-able for Mao:

3A+2T+2Lo 11.0
3A 8.2
3F+3T 9.5
3S 4.95
3F+3Lo 11.55
3Lz 6.6
2A 3.85

TOTAL 55.65

Before the season started, when TAT was first talking about Mao "surprising" her and doing things like 3A+3T, I thought Mao would eventually try to work one of those in, but now I think a 3-jump combo with the 3A might be better...

Anyone have any thoughts?

Batsuchan wrote:

Anyone have any thoughts?...

Yes. I think YOU should talk to Mao and Tat. lol. Maybe you could write it in her message book on her website? Also, what do you think of the three 3A's? I mentioned that once before (I think it was in this thread too). I don't know if it's true that she really is planning on doing that or not, but that's what I heard.

Star85, don't forget that a three 3A program is going to get zayak'ed and one of the 3A is not going to count! (or any program with three of the same triple jump)

It's unfortunate that the tech scores given to jumps aren't exactly reflective of their difficulty under CoP - this is especially true for the ladies. A handful of men at least challenge the 4T or 4S, and the 3A is a must for them, but on the ladies side the 3A is an almost-never deal except for Mao/Yukari and the 4S is like a legendary move (Miki). It'll probably make it seem like jumps are yet again giving too much weight in the new judging system, but I would honestly like to see some justice given to those who "challenge" the technical aspects of the sport, because the argument of a few that they would rather see a 3-2 "done well" over a "3-3" done shakily is nothing short of alarming to me, IMO.

Star85 wrote:

Batsuchan wrote:

Anyone have any thoughts?...

Yes. I think YOU should talk to Mao and Tat. lol. Maybe you could write it in her message book on her website? Also, what do you think of the three 3A's? I mentioned that once before (I think it was in this thread too). I don't know if it's true that she really is planning on doing that or not, but that's what I heard.

Hehehe, thanks Star85! But I barely know how to skate so I don't know if Mao+TAT should be paying attention to my random thoughts. It's fun to strategize for Mao though!

clovera's right about Mao not being able to do three 3A's in the long program. BUT - I was thinking today that since Mao's 3A seems to have gotten pretty reliable, she might want to think about putting it into the short program at some point.

Already, she could replace the 3F+3Lo with 3A+2T; it has a lower base value by 1 point, but if Mao keeps getting UR calls on the 3Lo, then it might be worth it.

But if she could get the 3A out of steps (like in "Czardas") solid - and I bet she could - that would increase the base value of her jumps in the SP by 2.2 points.

And I know I said earlier that the 3A+3T probably doesn't work for the LP, but if she could get that solid, then that would be worth 1.7 points more than the 3F+3Lo. But I'm not sure if that substitution is worth it.

Some days I do wish that the ISU would change the rules and let the ladies do either a 2A or 3A in the SP - but I guess that might favor Mao (and maybe Yukari) a little too much. But I can dream.

Right now I just hope Mao will be able to perfect the 3F-3L combo so that it won't be downgraded. The judges seem to be really strict with the loop combos, even those ending with a double loop. I don't think that any 3L combo was ratified this season in ladies internationally... In men, I can only think of Nobu's 3A-3T-3L at Nebelhorn, and even he stopped doing it after that, preferring to do two combos with 3T.

I really hope that Mao will be able to overcome this obstacle. It would be sad to see 3L combos die out because nobody would dare to attempt them anymore.

Okami wrote:

Right now I just hope Mao will be able to perfect the 3F-3L combo so that it won't be downgraded. The judges seem to be really strict with the loop combos, even those ending with a double loop. I don't think that any 3L combo was ratified this season in ladies internationally... In men, I can only think of Nobu's 3A-3T-3L at Nebelhorn, and even he stopped doing it after that, preferring to do two combos with 3T.

I really hope that Mao will be able to overcome this obstacle. It would be sad to see 3L combos die out because nobody would dare to attempt them anymore.

I hope for that too! I love 3L combos more than 3T combos; always have. 3L combos always seem more powerful and more "wow", you know? Plus, I thought it was cool that Mao did the more difficult combo as compared to the other ladies.

I think she can perfect it though. Her loops are so beautiful~

I agree with Okami and Mirai!!

I love Mao's 3Lo's and 3F-3Lo!! People rave about Yu-Na's 3F+3T, and it is quite explosive and impressive, but what I've always loved about Mao's 3F-3Lo is that it just looks so effortless and pretty.

And it's so quick - no gap - unlike when you pick for the 3T.

I really hope Mao can get credit for it!

I don't know all of the little rules... There's so many! Even the skaters and coaches don't always think them all through. I remember times when skaters did things that didn't get them any or many points, and the commentates were like, "hm they need to look at their rule book. That wasn't very strategic." I don't remember any specific instances of this though.

I agree with you Batsuchan. Why not put a 3A in the short? Maybe she will next season. Sorry about the bold font. It just started to turn bold by itself, even though it's turned off. I can't make it go away!

Star85 wrote:

I don't know all of the little rules... There's so many! Even the skaters and coaches don't always think them all through. I remember times when skaters did things that didn't get them any or many points, and the commentates were like, "hm they need to look at their rule book. That wasn't very strategic." I don't remember any specific instances of this though.

I agree with you Batsuchan. Why not put a 3A in the short? Maybe she will next season. Sorry about the bold font. It just started to turn bold by itself, even though it's turned off. I can't make it go away!

She didn't put it because a 2 axel is a compulsory element

polosatik wrote:

She didn't put it because a 2 axel is a compulsory element

Oh. I didn't know they couldn't do both. Once again, I do not know all the little rules and regulations. Sometimes I say things that make me sound stupid . I am not a skater, and I wasn't raised in a house that watched much skating. And for a long time, I didn't pay much attention to any of the technical things or the rules. I just watched, and enjoyed. I learn something new about skating everytime I watch it or read something about it.

Actually, I was thinking that Mao can do the 3A as her triple jump from steps in the short, ala Czardas (and I think clovera was asking about this in one of the other threads), OR she could do a 3A+2T, or 3A+3T if she gets that.

So the layout in the short could be something like this:

3A+2T (or 3T)
3Lz
2A

or

3F+3Lo
3A (from steps)
2A

I think either of these would be legal...?

Sometimes I just want to see Mao pull out the 3A in the short just to freak everyone else out! :joker:

Well, I guess this sort of relates to 4CC, but my last post was just so long that I thought I'd put my post here.

So my gut feeling tells me that Mao is going to put the 3F-3Lo in the LP at 4CC as one last test of whether she can get it rotated or not. If she does, that would be great, and hopefully it would be part of a flawless program that makes up an amazing comeback.

However, if Mao decides that 3F-3Lo is too risky, then I think the quick fix for her program would be to do this:

3A+2T 9.5
3A 8.2
3F+2Lo+2Lo 8.5
3S 4.95
3F+3T 10.45
3Lz 6.6
2A 3.85

TOTAL = 52.05

But I love her 3Lo, and OMG, did you see the height in the warm-up?? - so it would be slightly better to do this:

3A+2T 9.5
3A 8.2
3F+2Lo+2Lo 8.5
3Lo 5.5
3F+3T 10.45
3Lz 6.6
2A 3.85

TOTAL = 52.60

I think she could perfect either of these in time for Worlds, and both have a higher base value than her 07-08 program.

There are other changes that could potentially be made, but since the last two jumps come one after the other, it becomes difficult, and I think these are the layouts that stay closest to what Mao has been practicing all season.

Looking ahead to next season though, if the 5 triple bonus rule does go into effect, then Mao will have to add in the 3S or 3Lo somewhere. If she wants to keep the two 3A's and leave out the 3F-3Lo, then she could try something like this to maximize the base value:

1 3A+2T 9.5
2 3A 8.2
3 3Lz 6
4 3F+3T 10.45
5 3Lo 5.5
6 3F+2Lo+2Lo 9.35
7 3S 4.95
Total 53.95

As for the short program, that is tricky. Her 3A+2T has gotten UR calls, and her 3F+3T has gotten UR calls in the past. We have yet to see Mao do a 3F+3T this season, but I have confidence that she could get that consistent. I also think that if Mao can master the 3A from steps, though, that will be a huge advantage. That's gotta be worth about 8.2 +2. Plus the wow factor - 3A in the short. Gosh, I'm really hoping Mao does that at some point!

My advice for worlds this year:

SP:

3A-2T or 3L-2L or 3F-2L
3F or 3L
2A

FP:

3A
3A+2T
3T into 2A
----bonus------
3L
3F-2L-2L
3F-2L


This is probably the most realistic layout since she has not landed a ratified 3-3 this year.....

itcaip wrote:

My advice for worlds this year:

SP:

3A-2T or 3L-2L or 3F-2L
3F or 3L
2A

FP:

3A
3A+2T
3T into 2A
----bonus------
3L
3F-2L-2L
3F-2L


This is probably the most realistic layout since she has not landed a ratified 3-3 this year.....

While that may be true, I think a 3F-3T should be more suitable instead of a 3-2 combo? I definitely think Mao should have and is able of landing a solid 3-3, if not a 3F-3L.

itcaip wrote:

SP:

3A-2T or 3L-2L or 3F-2L
3F or 3L
2A

This is probably the most realistic layout since she has not landed a ratified 3-3 this year.....

Mao struggled the whole 07-08 season when it comes to those 3-3 combinations in the SP but she nailed the perfect one at the world championships. (It was Mao's first successful 3-3 in the SP of that season at the international event if I remember correctly) So why give up on 3-3 at this year's worlds?
I think Mao can defend her world title without any 3-3s but Mao is capable of landing nice 3-3 combinations once again at worlds. (I still think Mao's 3-3 at GPF should have been ratified)

but we are talking about strategy here... 4cc has proved that you don't necessarily need a 3-3 in the short program... it's better to skate clean... remember that joannie rochette was only 5 points behind yuna who set a new world record.. and joannie had no 3-3....
but anyway it's up to mao, we don't know exactly what she is doing in the practices... I think she might have already tried the 3F-3T in competition this year if she felt good enough with it.. but obviously she doesn't so she keeps on doing 3F-3L.
I really thought she would try all her tricks at 4cc to see if it could work for worlds... but instead her whole program was a bit watered down... I don't get this strategy either ;-(

itcaip wrote:

I really thought she would try all her tricks at 4cc to see if it could work for worlds... but instead her whole program was a bit watered down... I don't get this strategy either ;-(

Okami mentioned multiple times that Mao has new jumping technique she is still getting used to, and by now we know she wasn't at 100% during 4CC, so why on earth would you want to have seen a 3F-3T out of her? Ultimately the biggest obstacle to a skater is to stay healthy and injury-free. And I would love to know how going for a 3F-3L (albeit underrotated) in the SP and the 3A in the long is "watered down." If it wasn't for the pop, Mao would clearly have hoped for the first axel to be a 3A too (you are contradicting yourself anyway, here you are talking about strategy and mentioning Joannie who didn't try a 3-3 yet you mention being disappointed that Mao's jump layout wasn't more aggressive when she is clearly going for the 3A and keeping all her jumps-in-combo to 2L in the FS).

Sheesh, when did 4CC become an Olympic or Worlds level competition?

clovera wrote:

itcaip wrote:

I really thought she would try all her tricks at 4cc to see if it could work for worlds... but instead her whole program was a bit watered down... I don't get this strategy either ;-(

Okami mentioned multiple times that Mao has new jumping technique she is still getting used to, and by now we know she wasn't at 100% during 4CC, so why on earth would you want to have seen a 3F-3T out of her? Ultimately the biggest obstacle to a skater is to stay healthy and injury-free. And I would love to know how going for a 3F-3L (albeit underrotated) in the SP and the 3A in the long is "watered down." If it wasn't for the pop, Mao would clearly have hoped for the first axel to be a 3A too (you are contradicting yourself anyway, here you are talking about strategy and mentioning Joannie who didn't try a 3-3 yet you mention being disappointed that Mao's jump layout wasn't more aggressive when she is clearly going for the 3A and keeping all her jumps-in-combo to 2L in the FS).

Sheesh, when did 4CC become an Olympic or Worlds level competition?

To be honest,here in Russia,4CC is just a word Worlds, Europeans,Gran Prix -yes, but 4CC is nothing for europeans. That's why I think TAT wasn't very excited abouth that competition. And about Joannie, common guys! She's canadian and this event was in Canada! What are we talking about?

clovera: i was just saying that since 4cc is one of the less important competitions she could have tried more to see if it works out, careless about downgrades and falls... As a last go before worlds ( when it really counts)... That is why I thought it was a bit watered down.. but at worlds i think it's better to play it safe!
Anyway, Mao is a skater who needs pressure and always skates better in front of her homecrowd or when it really counts.. So , let's hope she becomes the first woman to hit two 3A's at world championships and let's forget about those 3-3's !!! ;-))))

itcaip wrote:

clovera: i was just saying that since 4cc is one of the less important competitions she could have tried more to see if it works out, careless about downgrades and falls... As a last go before worlds ( when it really counts)...

itcaip - Actually that was what I had been thinking too. In the interviews around Japanese Nationals, Mao had mentioned to Shizuka Arakawa that her ideal program for the Olympics would have two triple axels and two triple-triple combinations (I'm guessing 3F+3T and 3F+3Lo.) So I thought she might try that at 4CC when it wouldn't really matter how she did. I don't think she'll take that much risk at Worlds, so maybe we'll have to wait and see what Mao attempts next season.

About the 3F-3Lo, I'm not sure what to think. It's not like last season when Mao would pop the combo in the short, but pull it off in the long (but even then, she got some underrotation calls). I think the tech callers got really strict this year - no one has gotten a combo with a triple loop ratified this season, right? I love Mao's 3F-3Lo , but given that she did get more points for her 3F-2Lo in the 4CC LP than she has gotten for the 3F-3Lo< the whole season, I'm not sure that she can risk another UR call at Worlds.

BUT, if Mao really wants to try the 3F-3Lo at Worlds, then I'm perfectly happy to cheer her on in her attempt. Because I think it should be ratified, and because I love that Mao never backs down from a challenge.

If she wants to avoid the 3F-3Lo in the short, however, I do think she should either go for the 3F-3T or the 3A-2T. I think 3F-2Lo is not going to be enough against Yu-Na.

The more I think about it, the more I think Mao should try to put a 3A into the short. I'm guessing that Mao's 3F-3T won't receive as much GOE as Yu-Na's (but I don't know, since she hasn't done it all season. Now that she's stronger, it might be different). If she did a 3A from steps cleanly, I feel like that's got to be worth +2 GOE. Alternatively, I think the 'wow factor' of a 3A+2T would help counter the 'wow factor' of Yu-Na's 3F+3T.

I don't know if Mao should try this at Worlds, but someday I'd love to see a 3A from Mao in the short...and a 75-ish score for a new world record!!!

I don't know where I should post in the forum about this. But here is it anyway.

I really really really love Mao-chan's skating. Quoting Eurosport's commentator's remark in Mao's EX at Worlds 2008, she really has such FREEDOM in her skates. Most importantly, this girl loves what she's doing and is passionate about it. Plus, she NEVER gives up and strives to be better in every competition. I personally think Mao believes it's more rewarding to win the battle against YOURSELF than against your opponents/rivals. Though her performance faltered in the 4cc, I'm sure she will come back stronger at Worlds.

What motivated to write this post is because I've been seeing a lot of videos discussing Mao's problematic jumps lately (including under rotation, pre-rotation, wrong edges, etc), mentioning that the judges always favour Mao, gives her more points than she actually deserves, unfair corrupt judging, etc. There have been such videos before, but with the worlds and olympics approaching, this phenomenon seems to be even more apparent.

I felt very disturbed at how people go at lengths to bash a skater/a person they don't like. Mao is one talented skater and she works hard for every title she has earnt so far. But sometimes, her skating habits developed in the past (like the lutz edge) that she has worked so hard on changing comes back to haunt her in competitions; when she is placed under immense stress. As previous posters have mentioned, Mao's jumps, spins and steps are relatively better during practices. I personally believe that so is her expres​sion(body and facial) too in general during exhibitions. She comes alive to the camera when she skates in exhibitions.

Besides the whole lutz/flip edge controversy, people also attack her for prerotation. I know prerotation is normal for edge jumps but at times, she really does prerotates a bit more than other skaters, leaving room for people to question her integrity and ability as a skater and competitor.

I am no specialist in figure skating and I certainly am not in the rightful place to judge who is right or who is wrong. What I have learnt from the videos is this: no skater is perfect. There will be times when Mao would be criticized for making technical errors in her jumps/spins, times when people would compare her to her competitors and pick out all her imperfections. Some comments may be correct, some may be plain mean and totally false. What I do know now, however, after watching the videos, that I am NOT supporting and cheering Mao-chan on because she is a perfect skater and a beautiful girl with a great smile. I am supporting her, knowing that she has her imperfections just as we all do. I am supporting her because in spite of all her achievements, the media pressure and criticisms, she has never given up trying to improve herself and progress. Her 'fighting spirit' never ceases to amaze me. First at the 2007 grand prix final, then at 2007 worlds FS, the 2008 worlds FS in which she took that big fall and recently when she fought to jump the 2nd triple axel after she missed the first one in 4CC.

Wishing Asada Mao all the best in 2009 worlds and other challenges ahead of her. Skate freely and skate with your heart!!!

P.S. big thank you to all who made it to the end of my long long post. thanks for bearing it with me. Sincere apologies if I got any facts or technical information wrong.

I am really looking forward seeing the next championship in LA. I hope Mao will do her best and become the champion again.

By the way, Michelle Kwan is going to be a commentator for the Worlds?
I read a comment which was on the other website. I wonder it is true or not.

I personally want Kwan or Sasha Cohen come back to the worlds. They are very good skaters, so, US figure skating will be got more attention.

sky wrote:

I am really looking forward seeing the next championship in LA. I hope Mao will do her best and become the champion again.

By the way, Michelle Kwan is going to be a commentator for the Worlds?
I read a comment which was on the other website. I wonder it is true or not.

I personally want Kwan or Sasha Cohen come back to the worlds. They are very good skaters, so, US figure skating will be got more attention.

Yes, I think it's true , you can read about it here http://newsblogs.chicagotribune.com/sports_globetrotting/2009/02/kwan-on-nbc-team-at-worlds.html
Mao is very smart girl and I'm sure she will do her best at WC,if she's on no one can beat her. Good luck Mao!

That was a great post SnowDrops24 !

Quote :

Besides the whole lutz/flip edge
controversy, people also attack her for prerotation. I know prerotation
is normal for edge jumps but at times, she really does prerotates a bit
more than other skaters, leaving room for people to question her
integrity and ability as a skater and competitor.

As I already said, pre-rotation is just normal. Not only for edge jump but for toe jumps. Of course, Yu Na Kim is a rare skater who do not pre rotate at all, which is a more difficult technique I guess, and it's totally fine! but do you find any other skater than her? If you look at skaters like Michelle Kwan, Sasha Cohen, Joannie Rochette, Miki Ando, Yukari Nakano, and Mao Asada, etc...they use all the same "pre rotation technique" So I don't think it's bad at all. My coach always says to me to swivel a little bit before jumping, because that's the technique.

Other than that, I agree with all the other things you said, you seem to be such a devoted fan!

bibi wrote:

That was a great post SnowDrops24 !

Quote :

Besides the whole lutz/flip edge
controversy, people also attack her for prerotation. I know prerotation
is normal for edge jumps but at times, she really does prerotates a bit
more than other skaters, leaving room for people to question her
integrity and ability as a skater and competitor.

As I already said, pre-rotation is just normal. Not only for edge jump but for toe jumps. Of course, Yu Na Kim is a rare skater who do not pre rotate at all, which is a more difficult technique I guess, and it's totally fine! but do you find any other skater than her? If you look at skaters like Michelle Kwan, Sasha Cohen, Joannie Rochette, Miki Ando, Yukari Nakano, and Mao Asada, etc...they use all the same "pre rotation technique" So I don't think it's bad at all. My coach always says to me to swivel a little bit before jumping, because that's the technique.

Other than that, I agree with all the other things you said, you seem to be such a devoted fan!

As I 've heard it's just two different techniques Mostly skaters use a pre rotation technique.