Japan Open 2013 & Carnival on Ice

 Mao used to really struggle with levels. For example in her (stunning) SP at Worlds 2008 she got only LSp2, SpSq1, FSSp3, SlSt3, CCoSp2. She never got a lvl4 layback until the previous Olympic season, and by the time she started improving her levels, shaky jumps and slow speed on things other than StSq affected her TES.
 The base value for 3A is higher now. For example, the BV for 3A at Worlds 2007 was 7.50, now it's 8.50 and 7.21 is how much Mao got at Japan Open while overturning the jump.
 The base value of 3L improved as well, which is good for Mao since she's attempting it in the second half.
 Mao's 3Lz, even if not perfect, gets better GoEs now than before she started fixing it. For example, she got 4.42 at Worlds 2008 SP, 5.60 at JO 2013.
 Mao's attempting a full set of triples including 3A now. Previously, even at her best, she didn't have 3T or 3S or 3Lz (or any of them, as in Vancouver 2010).
 The penalty for minor underrotation is way less severe now.

All those little things add up.  

Finally, we need to remember than it matters what type of triples are attempted. An attempted 8 triple program with 3A and repeated 3F & 3L has such big base value that a missed 3T or messy 3S doesn't kill the TES, because they are not even the biggest scoring jumps. 3A itself has twice the BV of 3S, and with a good reason, because how many ladies you see even attempt 3A? Even some of the talented guys (like Patrick Chan, Stephane Lambiel, Adam Rippon and many others) struggle with it, and for many others it took years to master it.

Inskate, I've been looking forward to your insightful analysis for a few days. Welcome back  Your knowledgeable comments are the best response to Mao's naysayers, provided that they listen of course  

Now that Mao can almost always consistently get level 4s on the non-jump elements, I'm hoping for improved GOEs including those on her jumps. That's where Yuna gets a lot of points. Getting almost 20pts in her LP despite the less than 60 BV is really something. So I'm hoping Mao will have even better skates at SA and then we'll see. Other people are quick to say she only got her score because she skated in Japan. I want her to get high scores in other countries to shut them up.

inskate, welcome back and thank you for your analysis. ITA with your entire post.

roma wrote:

Other people are quick to say she only got her score because she skated in Japan. I want her to get high scores in other countries to shut them up.

THIS.

zarinaballerina wrote:

inskate, welcome back and thank you for your analysis. ITA with your entire post.

roma wrote:

Other people are quick to say she only got her score because she skated in Japan. I want her to get high scores in other countries to shut them up.

THIS.

True words!

Thanks to Inskate, and thanks to the uploader of the following video:

https://youtu.be/sr3ixIPQiIE

If anyone is interested in the minor changes on the SP from THE ICE (Osaka version) and CaOI...

Thanks for welcoming me back everyone!

I am sorry if I sounded pessimistic, but some past competitions have strict tech callers which was why I questioned her TES. I haven't even checked the protocols yet when I wrote my post! But now that I see it, there isn't much of a big difference here from last year's JO. I may just be worried a lot! Please I don't want a repeat of NHK 2012.

inskate wrote:

 Mao used to really struggle with levels. For example in her (stunning) SP at Worlds 2008 she got only LSp2, SpSq1, FSSp3, SlSt3, CCoSp2. She never got a lvl4 layback until the previous Olympic season, and by the time she started improving her levels, shaky jumps and slow speed on things other than StSq affected her TES.
 The base value for 3A is higher now. For example, the BV for 3A at Worlds 2007 was 7.50, now it's 8.50 and 7.21 is how much Mao got at Japan Open while overturning the jump.
 The base value of 3L improved as well, which is good for Mao since she's attempting it in the second half.
 Mao's 3Lz, even if not perfect, gets better GoEs now than before she started fixing it. For example, she got 4.42 at Worlds 2008 SP, 5.60 at JO 2013.
 Mao's attempting a full set of triples including 3A now. Previously, even at her best, she didn't have 3T or 3S or 3Lz (or any of them, as in Vancouver 2010).
 The penalty for minor underrotation is way less severe now.

All those little things add up.  

Finally, we need to remember than it matters what type of triples are attempted. An attempted 8 triple program with 3A and repeated 3F & 3L has such big base value that a missed 3T or messy 3S doesn't kill the TES, because they are not even the biggest scoring jumps. 3A itself has twice the BV of 3S, and with a good reason, because how many ladies you see even attempt 3A? Even some of the talented guys (like Patrick Chan, Stephane Lambiel, Adam Rippon and many others) struggle with it, and for many others it took years to master it.

Thank you so much! It all makes sense now. About 3A, I love how Mao does hers. She only needs to work on her landing because if I recall, she also overrotated last Worlds.  Also if it's not too much trouble, what do you guys think about Mao's flip? I think she has better technique now as well as more speed in jump entrance, especially when I saw her do a solo flip in COI. In JO though, to my eyes her second one looked like a close UR. Thoughts on this?

COHK wrote:

Thanks to Inskate, and thanks to the uploader of the following video:

https://youtu.be/sr3ixIPQiIE

If anyone is interested in the minor changes on the SP from THE ICE (Osaka version) and CaOI...

Simply gorgeous.  

I think Mao's flips and jumps overall this year are looking more solid. She has to keep this momentum. I feel when a skater starts to lose momentum and make a lot of mistakes, judges crack down on their jumps more. Mirai is an example. The judges are quite harsh on her. Granted, she does have UR issues but I never feel she gets the benefit of doubt from the judges as some other skaters. It's unfair for some skaters, due to reputation, to be scrutinized more so than others.

COHK wrote:

Thanks to Inskate, and thanks to the uploader of the following video:

https://youtu.be/sr3ixIPQiIE

If anyone is interested in the minor changes on the SP from THE ICE (Osaka version) and CaOI...

   

I love the "new version" even more. Going for 3Lo-2Lo was the best decision she's made, now her out of steps 3F will get nice +goe since she won't pause before the jump, like she sometimes did with out of steps 3Lo.
I know this won't happen, but can you imagine a SP with 3A, 3F, 3Lo-3Lo. What I wouldn't give to see her do this. I wonder what her score would be, probably 85+.

aoi88 wrote:

I think Mao's flips and jumps overall this year are looking more solid. She has to keep this momentum.

Her entire skating looks so much better then in the past 4 years. I can't remember when was the last time, she was this good, so early in the season. Her hard work has really paid off. I love her attitude going into this olympic season. 

zarinaballerina wrote:

I know this won't happen, but can you imagine a SP with 3A, 3F, 3Lo-3Lo. What I wouldn't give to see her do this. I wonder what her score would be, probably 85+.

 

This also crossed my mind. But everybody knows how hard to get -3Lo ratified... And shouldn't ISU be responsible for that? -3lo almost extincts  

AmazingGraceMao wrote:

zarinaballerina wrote:

I know this won't happen, but can you imagine a SP with 3A, 3F, 3Lo-3Lo. What I wouldn't give to see her do this. I wonder what her score would be, probably 85+.

 

This also crossed my mind. But everybody knows how hard to get -3Lo ratified... And shouldn't ISU be responsible for that? -3lo almost extincts   

If Mao gets 85+, the Maobotdom would explode, but if Yuna gets that score, it's because she deserves that  . People who call her overscored never bother to read the protocol.

pearlyriver wrote:

AmazingGraceMao wrote:

zarinaballerina wrote:

I know this won't happen, but can you imagine a SP with 3A, 3F, 3Lo-3Lo. What I wouldn't give to see her do this. I wonder what her score would be, probably 85+.

 

This also crossed my mind. But everybody knows how hard to get -3Lo ratified... And shouldn't ISU be responsible for that? -3lo almost extincts   

If Mao gets 85+, the Maobotdom would explode, but if Yuna gets that score, it's because she deserves that  . People who call her overscored never bother to read the protocol.

Of course the other skater deserved it after a long time out of the competition and her injury.   
As for me, I'm nervous but considering Mao's performances in COI and JO, an 8 triple program by Sochi is already realistic!

Thank you for your analysis, inskate  


Jenny is not mean to Mao this time  
(around 25:00)

http://www.theskatinglesson.com/this-and-that-107/

silenceisgolden wrote:

Thank you for your analysis, inskate  


Jenny is not mean to Mao this time  
(around 25:00)

http://www.theskatinglesson.com/this-and-that-107/

Holy cow, what happened?! Jenny finally realized that you never, and I mean never count Mao out. It took her long enough.  Seriously, I thought I was hallucinating, so much praise for Mao, from Jenny. She was spot on of course, but I'm still pleasantly shocked.

pearlyriver wrote:

If Mao gets 85+, the Maobotdom would explode, but if Yuna gets that score, it's because she deserves that   . People who call her overscored never bother to read the protocol.

Tell me about it. I don't get the hatred. I went to the GS and FSU to see what they have to say about JO, and people have been screaming she was overscored for doing only 3 triples. I mean they didn't even bother to look, or wait for protocol, simply jumping to conclusions. 

Now that my excitement has calmed down a little, I must say that I'm a bit upset about her PCS score. Less than 68?! I can't help but think what Caro would've gotten for her program, when being less clean. I bet it would be close to, or over 70.  Mao has improved so much, it should've been rewarded in PCS, IMO.

AmazingGraceMao wrote:

This also crossed my mind. But everybody knows how hard to get -3Lo ratified... And shouldn't ISU be responsible for that? -3lo almost extincts  

This is why I'd prefer if Mao went for 3F-3T instead. With 3Lo, you just know that the tech specialist is going to search for a way to downgrade it. This doesn't just go for Mao, but for every lady who's doing a combo with 3Lo. 

zarinaballerina wrote:

Tell me about it. I don't get the hatred. I went to the GS and FSU to see what they have to say about JO, and people have been screaming she was overscored for doing only 3 triples. I mean they didn't even bother to look, or wait for protocol, simply jumping to conclusions. 

Now that my excitement has calmed down a little, I must say that I'm a bit upset about her PCS score. Less than 68?! I can't help but think what Caro would've gotten for her program, when being less clean. I bet it would be close to, or over 70.  Mao has improved so much, it should've been rewarded in PCS, IMO.

AmazingGraceMao wrote:

This also crossed my mind. But everybody knows how hard to get -3Lo ratified... And shouldn't ISU be responsible for that? -3lo almost extincts  

This is why I'd prefer if Mao went for 3F-3T instead. With 3Lo, you just know that the tech specialist is going to search for a way to downgrade it. This doesn't just go for Mao, but for every lady who's doing a combo with 3Lo. 

Why does the 3L-3L often get downgraded?  . Last night I watched Caroline Zhang's SP at US Nat 2012 and her 3L-3L got downgraded but on slow motion, it was fully rotated. At least 50 other people think so.  .

Taka updated his website, with photos of JO:

http://www.t-kozuka.com/blog/2013/10/japan-open.html

(Coach Nobu is really cute holding the pink pouch... )

COHK wrote:

Taka updated his website, with photos of JO:

http://www.t-kozuka.com/blog/2013/10/japan-open.html

(Coach Nobu is really cute holding the pink pouch... )

 

COHK wrote:

Taka updated his website, with photos of JO:

http://www.t-kozuka.com/blog/2013/10/japan-open.html

(Coach Nobu is really cute holding the pink pouch... )

Oh and he can smile! Thats rare  

I've seen a picture when he held a large teddy bear (probably pink) which was presented to Mao. Anyone know which event was that? That looks so cute.  

COHK wrote:

Taka updated his website, with photos of JO:

http://www.t-kozuka.com/blog/2013/10/japan-open.html

(Coach Nobu is really cute holding the pink pouch... )

The caption of a bottom photo - Nobuo Sato with Machiko Yamada - is funny.
"Kin-san and Gin-san of the skating world"  

note:
Twin sisters,  late Kin-san and Gin-san became very popular in Japan
when they were 100 years old.  

pearlyriver wrote:

Why does the 3L-3L often get downgraded?  . Last night I watched Caroline Zhang's SP at US Nat 2012 and her 3L-3L got  downgraded but on slow motion, it was fully rotated. At least 50 other people think so.  .

Because in order to jump a 3Lo,a prerotation to a certain degree is neccessary. However, skaters often prerotate the second loop too much, or under rotate it, or, the tech speciallist often doesn't give the skater a benefit of the doubt. After all, if they jump 3lo as their second jump, it must be UR'ed or prerotated.  

I hope this made sense.

zarinaballerina wrote:

pearlyriver wrote:

Why does the 3L-3L often get downgraded?  . Last night I watched Caroline Zhang's SP at US Nat 2012 and her 3L-3L got  downgraded but on slow motion, it was fully rotated. At least 50 other people think so.  .

Because in order to jump a 3Lo,a  prerotation to a certain degree is neccessary. However, skaters often prerotate the second loop too much, or under rotate it, or, the tech speciallist often doesn't give the skater a benefit of the doubt. After all, if they jump 3lo as their second jump, it must be UR'ed or prerotated.  

I hope this made sense.

Thank you so much  . Is there any sktaer who get their 3L-3L ratified? Otherwise this combo would just be extinct?  

zarinaballerina wrote:

After all, if they jump 3lo as their second jump, it must be UR'ed or prerotated.  

Hahaha. It's just show how much theretics in ISU know about how to jump for real.  

pearlyriver wrote:

Is there any sktaer who get their 3L-3L ratified? Otherwise this combo would just be extinct?

In Senior Russian Nationals last year Natalia Ogoreltseva got ratified her combo with second 3Lo (3Lutz-3Loop) without < or << in both SP and LP. In SP it got -2.10 GOE (fall), 14th place. In LP +0.20 GOE, 12th place, 13th overall. Tech squad gave enough < or << there, including to Ogoreltseva, so if they ratifed those -3Loop in combo, so that is.
LP: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-p6IZrU-yQ&t=1m20s
SP: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLZ3AYndMSk&t=0m55s

I'm curious how the history of skating would have turned out had there been technical judges back in those days.

I watched Mao's Carnival on Ice exhibition and encore. For the start of the season, Mao's SP looks better than that in The Ice!

In her encore, the music didn't give her enough time for the arabesque spiral but I'm proud of Mao for hitting that beautiful position (the extension and pointed toe!!) even for a second, then that skid and turn for the ending pose!  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Zf4DCuseis