Japanese Nationals 2013

I also agree with AmazingGrazeMao, that not only would the first layout be safer, but the scoring potential might also higher too. The few points she may lose on the technical score she will likely gain in PCS.
Just looking at what ditching the 3A did to S/S scores and position. Mao's program already requires a lot of stamina and it's packed with content, no need for a second 3A.  heck there is not a single moment in her freeskate where she stops and can catch her breath, it's really intense from the start till the last second of it, and it already requires a great deal of stamina and focus.
There are so many layouts she could use, why go for the most risky one, especially when it's not  rewarded accordingly.
I really feel like some judges are punishing her for going for it, just look back at the GPF when her pcs suddenly feel, and where a few judges used the opportunity to lowbell her, and one judge in particular was not even trying to hide his biasnes, his scores stood greatly out from the bunch.

AmazingGraceMao wrote:

inskate wrote:

Considering the above, I wish Mao would go for:

3A 8.50
2A-3T 7.40
3F 5.30
--
2A-3T 8.14
3S 4.62
3F-2L-2L 9.79
3L 5.61
__________
49.36

(or 3Lz in place of the 1st 3F, just to have a full set of triples).

There would be no need to change choreo, 2A-3T would be less challenging than a second 3A, and Mao would have a high chance to score +GOE on every element. If only Mao could see it as a new challenge instead of "giving up"...

The 2A-3T in the first half can be replaced with 3Lo2Lo. I would love to see Mao try this layout too.

I'd prefer 2A-3T - 3L-2L has lower base value, different approach, less "wow" factor. Plus, as I said, the fact that Mao didn't even attempt 3F-2L today and messed up 3F-2L-2L worries me a bit, and I'd prefer her to go for as few loop combos as possible.

Of course, her team knows more about her condition than we do. I hope they'll choose the best possible option. I just hope they won't risk Mao's health in the name of challenge. She could still attempt 2x3A layout at Japan Open one day after resting properly, if she still feels like it

inskate wrote:

AmazingGraceMao wrote:

inskate wrote:

Considering the above, I wish Mao would go for:

3A 8.50
2A-3T 7.40
3F 5.30
--
2A-3T 8.14
3S 4.62
3F-2L-2L 9.79
3L 5.61
__________
49.36

(or 3Lz in place of the 1st 3F, just to have a full set of triples).

There would be no need to change choreo, 2A-3T would be less challenging than a second 3A, and Mao would have a high chance to score +GOE on every element.  If only Mao could see it as a new challenge instead of "giving up"...

The 2A-3T in the first half can be replaced with 3Lo2Lo. I would love to see Mao try this layout too.

I'd prefer 2A-3T - 3L-2L has lower base value, different approach, less "wow" factor. Plus, as I said, the fact that Mao didn't even attempt 3F-2L today and messed up 3F-2L-2L worries me a bit, and I'd prefer her to go for as few loop combos as possible.

Of course, her team knows more about her condition than we do. I hope they'll choose the best possible option. I just hope they won't risk Mao's health in the name of challenge. She could still attempt 2x3A layout at Japan Open one day after resting properly, if she still feels like it  

I am all for it she decided to that in the future  

inskate wrote:

AmazingGraceMao wrote:

inskate wrote:

Considering the above, I wish Mao would go for:

3A 8.50
2A-3T 7.40
3F 5.30
--
2A-3T 8.14
3S 4.62
3F-2L-2L 9.79
3L 5.61
__________
49.36

(or 3Lz in place of the 1st 3F, just to have a full set of triples).

There would be no need to change choreo, 2A-3T would be less challenging than a second 3A, and Mao would have a high chance to score +GOE on every element.  If only Mao could see it as a new challenge instead of "giving up"...

The 2A-3T in the first half can be replaced with 3Lo2Lo. I would love to see Mao try this layout too.

I'd prefer 2A-3T - 3L-2L has lower base value, different approach, less "wow" factor. Plus, as I said, the fact that Mao didn't even attempt 3F-2L today and messed up 3F-2L-2L worries me a bit, and I'd prefer her to go for as few loop combos as possible.

Of course, her team knows more about her condition than we do. I hope they'll choose the best possible option. I just hope they won't risk Mao's health in the name of challenge. She could still attempt 2x3A layout at Japan Open one day after resting properly, if she still feels like it  

But Mao attempts 3L-2L in the SP. If it were really bothering her, wouldn't she changed it to something else? I feel it's more of a stamina problem. Also frustration for failed 3A attempts. Mao's spins were better in the short than at GPF, so maybe the pain is better but her stamina hasn't returned.

aoi88 wrote:

[
But Mao attempts 3L-2L in the SP. If it were really bothering her, wouldn't she changed it to something else?

It's kind of late to change the layout - which was decided back when Mao was still landing 3F-3L and planning to add it to her LP.
It reminds me of the 2010-11 season when Mao planned to add 3L-3L to her SP and even landed in in practice (and it looked good), but she gave it up because of hips/back pain. And now that I think about it, it seemed to affect her spins as well, because her Biellman that season was super-slow and she didn't even attempt the classic layback position (although she was still doing it at Shen & Zhao's show)

Plus, I don't think she has that many options. Solo 3L often got deduction for too big pause between steps and the jump, 3S and 3T aren't worth much, 3Lz risks edge deduction.

And then there's the fact that I think Team Mao is hoping the pain is only temporary and caused by having a very busy season and no time to rest between GPF and Nationals. Last season Mao nearly withdrew from GPF LP because of pain, but was in great condition at 4CC. Perhaps there's just no point to tweak the jump layout for Nats only to un-tweak it when Mao feels better.

To clarify - I don't think 3L-2L is a tool of the devil - it's a beautiful combination and should present no challenge for a healthy Mao. However, it seems wiser to me to attempt something that can contribute to causing more pain as few times as possible. The one in the SP is already "memorized" by Mao as she practiced it since The Ice, but if Mao planned to include it in the LP, she'd have to do many run-throughs concentrating on this element to commit the new choreo to her memory.

Of course, It's just my personal opinion.   I have no idea about Mao's condition and I doubt she will complain about anything. I'm just speculating on the best way to keep the LP as risk-free as possible while still having the "wow" factor.   

inskate wrote:

Of course, It's just my personal opinion.   I have no idea about Mao's condition and I doubt she will complain about anything. I'm just speculating on the best way to keep the LP as risk-free as possible while still having the "wow" factor.   

I think we all want her to do well.   Anyways, has Mao said anything definite about her plans for Sochi? I just read articles where she gave somewhat vague answers, like she will keep doing what she has done, etc. But it seems that Mao was having doubts about the 3A herself before the LP. She talked to Sato who allowed her to go for it. So I am thinking that she could still change her mind if her condition isn't the best to attempt the risky layout.

I mean Suzuki scored 145 points with just a layout with the 2A-3T and no 3-3 in a domestic competition.
If Mao can go clean in the Olympics, I believe with her current layout she'll be able to score the same or even higher. She needs to go CLEAN. She won't be olympic champion if she pops, falls, or two-foots her triple axels. She needs to perform her elements with high GOE and with confidence.

The two triple axels in Vancouver did not work.
The two triple axels here did not work.
Team Mao needs to take a hint and realize that more difficulty isn't necessarily better. It's only better when you can perform all of your jumps and difficult elements consistently.

I know Mao is a really stubborn and goal-driven person but Sato needs to step in and control this obsession with the 3A before it's too late. I wonder if Sato himself has also become obsessed with this one jump... Mao should just concentrate on her previous layout at the beginning of the season and perhaps try to add a 3Lo on the end of the 3F. Even with a 2Lo and no 3-3, she has a good possibility of the OGM.

☆Genie wrote:

I mean Suzuki scored 145 points with just a layout with the 2A-3T and no 3-3 in a domestic competition.
If Mao can go clean in the Olympics, I believe with her current layout she'll be able to score the same or even higher. She needs to go CLEAN. She won't be olympic champion if she pops, falls, or two-foots her triple axels. She needs to perform her elements with high GOE and with confidence.

The two triple axels in Vancouver did not work.
The two triple axels here did not work.
Team Mao needs to take a hint and realize that more difficulty isn't necessarily better. It's only better when you can perform all of your jumps and difficult elements consistently.

I know Mao is a really stubborn and goal-driven person but Sato needs to step in and control this obsession with the 3A before it's too late. I wonder if Sato himself has also become obsessed with this one jump... Mao should just concentrate on her previous layout at the beginning of the season and perhaps try to add a 3Lo on the end of the 3F. Even with a 2Lo and no 3-3,  she has a good possibility of the OGM.

yes, but we also have to remind our self, what we are asking Mao to deliver consistently. It's programs that no one is attempting nor is it programs that any other female skater has  landed cleanly once before, and more importantly it's a layout she only recently has been skating to, and has to adjust too.

That being said, I also think that Sato needs to step in, and his recent comment do suggest that he has become obsessed with the 3A's. out of all the times when he stopped her from doing this jump in normal GPs in the past, now is more important then ever, that he steps in and draws a line. The only situation where i find it reasonable to go for the 2 3A's in the FS is if she is landing it all the time, and just as often in the at the Olympic practices and if there is no other layout that could potentially score just as high without putting it all at risk, and this this isn't the case I really hope that Sato or anyone steps in and convinces her to change her/their strategy.

kisses wrote:

btw I love your profile pic ilovethai    . Mao is really beautiful and looks confident on her smile.

Thank you so much Kisses     
Salamat sa inyo! Our Mao is just lovely...

https://twitter.com/3Ababe/status/415259524937699328/photo/1

according to the news, Mao has been suffering from recurring back pain, prior to the GPF (like linglang said). Sato coach: (she) couldn't do the spin at all. And Mao didn't practice much on the spin until she arrived at Saitama.

   perhaps we should let her go with that level 1 change foot spin. please do get some rest, Mao!

Also, another interesting news:
http://www.nikkansports.com/sports/figure/alljapan2013/news/p-sp-tp0-20131224-1235282.html

According to this, it seems that Mao might be able to train and use the facility at Russia National sports centre during Sochi Olympics. This is arranged through Tarasova (obviously for the time in between team event and ladies event. Though I don't know how much reliability this news will be  )

COHK wrote:

https://twitter.com/3Ababe/status/415259524937699328/photo/1

according to the news, Mao has been suffering from recurring back pain, prior to the GPF (like linglang said). Sato coach: (she) couldn't do the spin at all. And Mao didn't practice much on the spin until she arrived at Saitama.

   perhaps we should let her go with that level 1 change foot spin. please do get some rest, Mao!

Also, another interesting news:
http://www.nikkansports.com/sports/figure/alljapan2013/news/p-sp-tp0-20131224-1235282.html

According to this, it seems that Mao might be able to train and use the facility at Russia National sports centre during Sochi Olympics. This is arranged through Tarasova (obviously for the time in between team event and ladies event. Though I don't know how much reliability this news will be  )

Thank you for the news! I hope Mao rests so her pain can subside. Btw. Have you seen any articles where Mao clearly discusses about her plans for Sochi (layout, etc.)?

After reading everyone's comments, I have become much less optimistic about Mao's Olympic Gold Medal chances and much more worried about our dear Mao. I think after these nationals, we need to ask ourselves one question: with the severe back pain and cramps that Mao has, the inconsistencies, the massive adrenaline rush and pressure she's gonna face at Sochi.... what can we expect from Mao at Sochi?

Everyone's gonna hate me after I say this, and PLEASE forgive me... but in my opinion, we should be prepared for the worst if it happens. I hope to dear God this doesn't happen of course... but we have seen from the past. Last season, Mao had won every competition heading into worlds. She looked really good and I thought she was gonna win worlds. But then... mistakes happened.

There is a month and a half left until the ladies' SP in the team event at Sochi, which we're all sure Mao is gonna do. Is a month and a half enough time for Mao to recuperate from her back pains and train her difficult layout? Will her 3A (GOD I'M STARTING TO HATE THAT JUMP) be relatively consistent by Sochi? Then only 11 days later the ladies' competition begins. Will Mao still be fatigued from the team event portion?

This is why I hate figure skating sometimes. You work SO hard your whole life and career for 3-4 minutes, and one single mistake can destroy you. I know Mao has been skating superb short programs this whole season... BUT... the Olympics are different. Will she be able to withstand the pressure? One mistake in the SP, and the Gold is gone.

Everyone... skating pundits, commentators, skating legends, the judges... are gunning for Mao to win Olympic Gold. They WANT Mao to win. BUT... if Mao's back pains are as bad as everyone is saying... we should be prepared for the worst. I will pray for Mao to recover and deliver at Sochi.

There's a big difference between last season and this one. Mao has been attempting harder layouts and doing better than last season. I believe in Mao. I truly believe Mao has already perfected her SP at GPF. She only has to solve her issues in the LP. Whatever layout she decides, I hope she sticks to one and don't doubt herself. She might not win the Gold but I believe she will put her best effort and do well in Sochi. I know there are those out there (you know who) who are happy about this and hoping she will falter in Sochi, but I don't think Mao will give them that opportunity. I think as fans we should support her and believe in her abilities.  

ilovethai wrote:

After reading everyone's comments, I have become much less optimistic about Mao's Olympic Gold Medal chances and much more worried about our dear Mao. I think after these nationals, we need to ask ourselves one question: with the severe back pain and cramps that Mao has, the inconsistencies, the massive adrenaline rush and pressure she's gonna face at Sochi.... what can we expect from Mao at Sochi?

Everyone's gonna hate me after I say this, and PLEASE forgive me... but in my opinion, we should be prepared for the worst if it happens. I hope to dear God this doesn't happen of course... but we have seen from the past. Last season, Mao had won every competition heading into worlds. She looked really good and I thought she was gonna win worlds. But then... mistakes happened.

There is a month and a half left until the ladies' SP in the team event at Sochi, which we're all sure Mao is gonna do. Is a month and a half enough time for Mao to recuperate from her back pains and train her difficult layout? Will her 3A (GOD I'M STARTING TO HATE THAT JUMP) be relatively consistent by Sochi? Then only 11 days later the ladies' competition begins. Will Mao still be fatigued from the team event portion?

This is why I hate figure skating sometimes. You work SO hard your whole life and career for 3-4 minutes, and one single mistake can destroy you. I know Mao has been skating superb short programs this whole season... BUT... the Olympics are different. Will she be able to withstand the pressure? One mistake in the SP, and the Gold is gone.

Everyone... skating pundits, commentators, skating legends, the judges... are gunning for Mao to win Olympic Gold. They WANT Mao to win. BUT... if Mao's back pains are as bad as everyone is saying... we should be prepared for the worst. I will pray for Mao to recover and deliver at Sochi.

No one is going to hate you.   Actually, I think many people can understand your concern. As a matter of fact, the bold part is what Mao fans experienced four years ago already.  I assume many of us were preparing for the worst as we witnessed her struggles since the beginning of that season, or even before that at 2009 worlds where she missed the podium.  Then she made splendid comeback by winning herself a spot for Vancouver at nationals.  It was such a marvelous moment.  But still many of us were so much worried and didn't buy her bet of doing two 3As in LP.

According to the interview (as of last night immediately after FS http://live.sportsnavi.yahoo.co.jp/live/sports/figureskate_all/1968), she's going to stick with the two 3A layout.  

She said: she couldn't land good 3As at official practice in the morning and she went for the competition as wondering where they are gone.  She cannot figure  out why she couldn't nail 3A, but for her to succeed them in the future, she thinks practicing and increasing the success rate is the way for success. She has no strategy.  Her goal is to succeed with the program she's now doing. Regarding 3A, Nobuo-sensei said "the way you are doing now is fine" and so she believed it and attempted them.  She wants to make it (the current layout) something that she can do like a normal routine, so she thinks this is not a challenge but it's the base program for her.

I think one reason why Mao has confidence in succeeding with this layout is that she had a good season start, which is actually completely far better than that of four years ago.  In Vancouver season, she had to climb up from the bottom within three months or so, but this season she's been in better physical and mental condition.  I suppose this mental part plays a lot in her confidence, although she's been suffering bad back pains.

However, I would like to point out that it seems she forgot about her age.  She's four years older and thus her body strength and fatigue recovery speed must have been different from four years ago.  

Well, it's Mao. She's a strong self-believer.  She's overcome many difficulties in the past with her strong determination and therefore I can understand why she believes that she will be able to succeed this time too with her strong determination. Personally I wish she would go back to the first one 3A layout though. Being her fan is really tough isn't it.    Because of her inconsistency and desire to keep raising bars, we can never be rest assured but it's a real thrill of rooting for her.   

Machiko Yamada's interview is hilarious.   
(from the same link as above and sorry I don't have time so let me post some excerpt)

"We were happy about her performance anyway but we weren’t sure until we see the score.  Then, we saw the score and were very much surprised.  I couldn’t figure out how come it would add up to such a score.  She was given such a surprising score."  It seems JSF did national competition score inflation for the first time since it sounds like even Ms. Yamada had never experienced it before.

"Today Mao wasn’t really good.  But for her, (this competition) is a warm up, for Mao Asada (LOL). "

So this is going to be her first Olympic to attend with her student in 22 years, isn't it?  Wow time flies.  

Thanks Linglang.

I think there is still a chance she might change it. I don't think Sato will let her to attempt it if her condition doesn't allow it. If practices were going well, then it might just be fatigue. Hopefully, she will be in better condition by Sochi.

I think they should have a clear backup plan just in case though.

Is it certain that she's having back problems?

Mao_Asada_sunrise wrote:

Is it certain that she's having back problems?

According to news articles including the one COHK posted in the above, Mr. Sato said her back ache started to worsen before GPF.  As usual Mao says nothing about it.  It's good for fans to have a coach who tells what's actually going on at least to some extent, otherwise we would be speculating reasons why she couldn't do well this time.

Mao!   

COHK wrote:

Mao!   

So cute!   

linglang wrote:

Mao_Asada_sunrise wrote:

Is it certain that she's having back problems?

According to news articles including the one COHK posted in the above, Mr. Sato said her back ache started to worsen before GPF.  As usual Mao says nothing about it.  It's good for fans to have a coach who tells what's actually going on at least to some extent, otherwise we would be speculating reasons why she couldn't do well this time.

Oh I see. That makes me worry. We don't want her to have problems, but it would have been more convenient if it happened after the season ended.

COHK wrote:

Mao!   

Who's in the middle? She looks like Mai.

Isn't that Cathy Reed?

linglang wrote:

Mao_Asada_sunrise wrote:

Is it certain that she's having back problems?

According to news articles including the one COHK posted in the above, Mr. Sato said her back ache started to worsen before GPF.  As usual Mao says nothing about it.  It's good for fans to have a coach who tells what's actually going on at least to some extent, otherwise we would be speculating reasons why she couldn't do well this time.

What can be done about back pains?   If it affects her to the point that she can't practice spins, then it must be quite severe   Acupuncture is quite effective in relieving back pain, but team Mao must have used all available solutions.

She's Cathy Reed.  

I　found this one.